Tempo-free NEC: Rolling Colonials and Unlucky Terriers

The NEC is almost halfway done conference play and some trends are starting to take hold. For one, there’s a big cluster at the top. Robert Morris, Bryant and Sacred Heart have finally come to meet at exactly the point we expected.

Except for one little problem, the New York schools are back. Having endured some lumps of their own, St. Francis Brooklyn, LIU Brooklyn and Wagner all look to be in position to challenge for a home NEC tournament game. Those six teams represent the elite in NEC men’s basketball this season.

Two other teams very clearly represent the seventh and eighth best teams in the league. Quinnipiac and Central Connecticut are hanging in there, at .500 in conference and their efficiency margins back it up. At this point it seems like Monmouth and Mount St. Mary’s are going to have to fight tooth and nail to even make the conference tournament. It could happen, but it’s unlikely at this point.

One thing I do feel good about? Robert Morris’ place in the standings. The Colonials have a tough trip ahead though. If they can win both games in NYC this week it’ll be an impressive statement. Doing so will be difficult (there’s around a 25% chance). No matter what though Andy Toole’s team has to be considered the favorite at this juncture. Some teams are just more equal than others.

Tempo-free Standings by Efficiency Margin:

1. Robert Morris: +0.14
2. Bryant: +0.10
3. St. Francis Brooklyn: +0.07
4. Sacred Heart: +0.05
5. LIU Brooklyn: +0.03
6. Wagner: +0.01
7. Quinnipiac: -0.00
8. Central Connecticut: -0.01
9. Monmouth: -0.05
10. Mount St. Mary’s: -0.05
11. Fairleigh Dickinson: -0.14
12. St. Francis (PA): -0.15

Yup, the Terriers are still in third place in efficiency margin. Those close losses are tough to bear as fans, but they’re a sign that this team really is better than their results thus far. The fact that LIU Brooklyn won the head-to-head match up at the Pope Center makes me think that the Blackbirds have the inside shot at the fourth seed despite the numbers. What an awesome match up a 4/5 quarterfinal between the two Brooklyn schools would be. (One can dream.)

Best Offense:

1. Robert Morris: 1.16 points score per possession
2. Bryant: 1.16
3. LIU Brooklyn: 1.14
4. Sacred Heart: 1.09

Worst Offense:

1. FDU: 0.93
2. St. Francis (PA): 0.95
3. Monmouth: 0.95
4. Wagner: 0.99

Best Defense:

1. St. Francis Brooklyn: 0.93 points allowed per possession
2. Wagner: 0.97
3. Monmouth: 1.00
4. CCSU: 1.02

Note: While RMU’s offense is leading the Colonials’ resurgence, they’re also fifth in the league in points allowed per possession. The defense is certainly improving.

Worst Defense:

1. LIU Brooklyn: 1.11
2. St. Francis (PA): 1.09
3. Quinnipiac: 1.09
4. Mount St. Mary’s: 1.07

MSM just isn’t forcing enough turnovers to see MAYHEM hold opponents down. The Mount is doing everything right on defense until a team actually takes a shot, where they’ve got a 58% eFG% in conference. LIU has traditionally not been good at defense. With the switch to new head coach Jack Perri that’s even more the case. For all the work they do on it, the Blackbirds are even worse on defense this season. (But better on offense.) It’s a fascinating polarity.

Luckiest:

1. Sacred Heart: 0.90 wins above expectation
2. Wagner: 0.74
3. FDU: 0.66
4. LIU: 0.40

Unluckiest:

1. St. Francis Brooklyn: 1.54 wins below expectation
2. Mount St. Mary’s: 0.83
3. Robert Morris: 0.47
4. St. Francis (PA): 0.31

For all the close games in the NEC this season (11 of 48 have been less than four points or in overtime) it’s balanced out for every team except for one, Glenn Braica’s St. Francis Terriers. A few plays at the end of games are what’s preventing SFC from having a season like 2011-12 when it went 12-6 in league play.