NOTE: The latest NIT Bracketology can always be found from the top link here. It is updated every Sunday.
A lot of conference games have been played in the three weeks since the first bracket was posted back in early January. Some teams have risen (St. John’s) and some have fallen (Seton Hall). Recent games have really shaken up the brackets. Who had Villanova near the NCAA tournament even a week ago? Now the Wildcats look to be safely in at the moment. The bubble is really soft both for the NCAA and NIT. That’s why teams like Kentucky, Maryland and St. Mary’s are in the NCAA tournament for now.
As always this is my projected NIT tournament bracket for if the season ended today. All games through Sunday evening have been taken into account. (All the really late game could do is knock Stanford out anyways.) You can sort of reconstruct the s-curve that I used in my NIT bracket if you go through the seed lines. They’ve been scrubbed pretty hard this time around, though the only adjustments I’ve made is if two teams from the same conference would play in Rd. 1.
Version III will be up the second weekend of February, two weeks from tonight, so if you don’t like where your team is seeded now wait a couple of weeks. I’m sure things will keep getting all shook up.
Notes:
- Last 6 Into NCAA: Wyoming, Boise St., St. Mary’s, St. John’s, Maryland, Kentucky
- Notable League Winners: Lehigh (Patriot, head-to-head tiebreaker), Florida Gulf Coast (what a mess), Western Illinois (this matters!)
- Weirdest Profiles: Northwestern, Virginia and South Dakota St. (all in NIT)
- If your team is on the 7 or 8 seed line I wouldn’t feel too good. Those are usually automatic bid territory.
1. Iowa
8. Eastern Kentucky
4. Texas A&M
5. Charlotte
2. Virginia
7. Arkansas
3. Indiana St.
6. Stanford
1. Brigham Young
8. New Mexico St.
4. Rutgers
5. Richmond
2. St. Louis
7. Air Force
3. Xavier
6. South Dakota St.
1. Alabama
8. Seton Hall
4. Florida St.
5. Ohio
2. Tennessee
7. Massachusetts
3. Northwestern
6. UTEP
1. Washington
8. Wake Forest
4. Bucknell
5. Purdue
2. Memphis
7. Dayton
3. Arizona St.
6. Saint Joseph’s
There are some really fun match ups in this bracket. Memphis-Dayton is one I particularly like. The BYU bracket is full of sneaky good teams that are coming on strong lately. Air Force and Xavier are two of the biggest risers since the last time I did the bracket. Questions? Comments? Concerns?
I discovered your fine site in the run-up to last year’s Selection Sunday and valued your take on where Bucknell might end up. I know you weren’t screening to this level of detail yet, but an FYI for future brackets: Bucknell played (and beat) Purdue already this season. Thanks for contributing to the world of college hoops.
Right! I meant to point that one out as one of the big ironies of the bracketing procedure here. I’m sure you’re hoping that the Bison take care of business in the Patriot League Tourney and don’t have to worry about such a situation, but I don’t think there’s any rule against the two teams playing again in the First Round. Though my guess is they’d rearrange the bracket to avoid it.
How can Wake Forest make it over Clemson? Clemson destroyed them head to head. They have almost the exact same RPI. Clemson played better OOC opponents, with Arizona, Gonzaga, UTEP, South Carolina, and Purdue on their schedule. Clemson has 5 wins against the RPI 150: UVA, VT, WF, UTEP, and GT to WF’s 4: Xavier, UVA, GT, and NCst. I dont think Wake should be in over Clemson.
Replace BC for GT in WF wins, which is even worse.
Well, I’d first note that being an 8 seed means they’re not making the NIT anyways. But the reason I took Wake Forest on Sunday was because the Demon Deacons beat NC State. Clemson has an ugly loss at Coastal Carolina. Yes, Clemson won at home by 16 points over WF, but I thought the bad loss (of which WF has none) and the very good win merited inclusion over a team whose best win is a neutral site game over UTEP or at home against Virginia. Do I think Clemson is a better team than Wake Forest, of course. Do I think WF had a better resume as of Sunday, certainly.
Also note that Clemson’s blowout win of Georgia Tech occurred after this bracket was put out, so it wasn’t considered. At the end of the season I doubt the Demon Deacons will even be eligible for the NIT. Clemson has a good chance and has to find a way to get to around .500 in ACC play with one decent win to have a real good shot.
Will be shocked if Memphis makes the NIT. Do not see it. 18-3 and getting better every game…
They only reason Memphis is here is because Southern Miss is in the NCAA tournament and I can’t see C-USA being a two-bid league. The Tigers’ profile isn’t great, but beating USM this week would put the team right back into the NCAAs and leave me with some tough decisions.
I see your point. What if Memphis looses to Southern Miss and wins out and goes to C-USA final and plays Southern Miss again and looses again. Memphis would be something like 27-5. Of course that scenario may not happen but what if?
I highly doubt that Western Illinois will win the Summit. It will likely be NDSU or SDSU. All 3 have similar records but Western has played an easier schedule (see their RPI) and they’re only beating mediocre teams by 10 or 12 points, while SDSU and NDSU are beating those same teams by 20-40 points. All my money says that NDSU or SDSU wins the Summit and the other gets into the NIT.
I’m looking at your predictions and i can see you have a lowly texas a&m ahead of arkansas which has a better record. Especially overall and home record. Might wanna look at stats again
Please go find the most recent bracket… See link above. It has Arkansas way up and Texas A&M out.