My NEC Tournament simulator really likes Wagner. So does basically every computer in the country. The problem with that is that the Seahawks are 0-2 against the team they may need to beat (LIU Brooklyn) to take the title. LIU and Wagner are the only NEC teams that showed up in better than 50% of conference finals and it’s quite possible that someone other than the top two seeds could take the title. At 17.1% to win the title Robert Morris is a decent third bet.
It’s also interesting to note that Wagner won the title 67% of the time that it made it to the finals. This shows a few things:
1) The Seahawks are considered the top team by the computers.
2) If seeds hold Wagner will have to beat its top competition (Robert Morris) in Round 2.
3) It’s possible for Dan Hurley’s team to get a home court final with just one upset.
Compare that to LIU, which only won 48.2% of the finals it made, much closer to Robert Morris’ 47.5% rate. Even the teams at the bottom at least have a shot. There’s not a single team that didn’t win at least one title in the 10,000 sims.