Looking at conference strength through value add

As a sort of follow up to Cracked Sidewalks’ post about the Top 16 teams using value add I wanted to look at conference strength. Using the formula for returning players I calculated the average team strength for each conference. I also calculated the standard deviation as sort of a way of showing team strength. The chart is here, my thoughts are after the break.

Thoughts:

• The SWAC is the lowest rated conference, but also has a standard deviation of just 17. That’s going to be one exciting conference race!
• The movement of BYU to the West Coast Conference is going to have a large impact on college basketball. The Cougars give the WCC a third premiere team and also seriously hurt the Mountain West Conference. Throw out San Diego and the WCC is pretty much the equivalent of the Pac-10/12 according to value add.
• The Summit League moves way up the rankings when looking at value add. Whichever team comes out on top between Oral Roberts, South Dakota State and Oakland is going to be a battle tested team that no one wants to see come March. (Could it be a two-bid league?)
• Belmont and Harvard seem to be the two mid-major teams that are really out of their league compared to the rest of the conference. Every other league has at least two competitors at the top.
• Check out the MAAC! Three top 50 teams in Iona, St. Peter’s and Fairfield is going to make that race quite the battle. If the Gaels have early season non-conference success it could even be a two-bid league. Unfortunately the MAAC is also the conference with the highest standard deviation amongst team strength, which means some landmine games exist as well.
• One more storyline to watch is Longwood. The Lancers are an independent team that play really fast (30th in the nation in adjusted tempo last season). Value add likes them quite a bit, with a 97.5 average. That’s right in the area of a CBI/CIT bid. I really don’t know if it’s possible, but it’s certainly worth keeping an eye on.

Biggest Differences in KenPom 2010-11 vs. Value Add 2011-12 Prediction?

1. Big South +9
2. Summit League +8
3. West Coast Conference +4
4. Horizon -4
5. Big Sky -4